Millions of people go to the polls on a day that will mark the November vote


Voters in 15 states, including two titans, California and Texas, will go to the polls on March 5 for a Super Tuesday that will likely set a White House rematch in November between President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump.

The races will also determine the contours of House and Senate elections that will shape the legislative branch next year.

Here's what to watch as the results come in.

Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and Trump's first ambassador to the United Nations, won her first Republican primary on Sunday in the District of Columbia, and could win a few more on Tuesday. Moderate Republican senators from Maine, Susan Collins, and Alaska, Lisa Murkowski, endorsed her in recent days, just in time for her states' Super Tuesday contests.

Minnesota's open primary on Tuesday will allow Democrats to vote for Ms. Haley if they wish. And polls in Virginia showed her inching closer to Trump.

But the largest number of delegates (California has 169 and Texas 161) will almost certainly go to the former president, and Super Tuesday has loomed large for Haley's donors, who need to see that she has a chance. More than a third of all delegates will be allocated on Tuesday, not enough to make Trump the presumptive nominee, but enough to make him the prohibitive favorite.

So Haley will face choices with enormous ramifications: Does she drop out and endorse Trump, drop out and postpone any endorsement, stay in the race until her money runs out, or consider running with a third party? (She has said she won't do it, but the centrist group No Labels remains hopeful that she will join her candidacy.)

The nation has seen two responses to the victory of the former president and favorite for a third Republican nomination. After winning the New Hampshire primary in January, Trump mocked Haley's outfit and criticized her for trying to make the most of her 43 percent second-place finish. After her victory in Haley's home state of South Carolina last month, he didn't mention her.

Trump has made no secret of his desire to begin the general election campaign against Biden, and his frustration with Haley's stubborn insurgency, which has included harsh words against intemperance, age, loyalty to the Constitution and the loyalty of his former boss. loyalty to veterans and active duty service members.

A big night is expected for Trump. If he lashes out at a defeated fellow Republican, he risks further alienating some of his voters from him and potentially moving them toward Biden.

If anything, Biden faces even bigger problems reuniting the coalition of voters that brought him victory in 2020, but unlike the Republican Party, the Democratic discord Tuesday night will not manifest itself in votes for an alternative candidate. It may be reflected in the “uncommitted” votes.

Even as Biden won overwhelmingly in Michigan last week, 13.2 percent of Democratic primary voters voted “uncommitted,” most of them protesting the president's tilt toward Israel in its brutal conflict with Hamas in Gaza. That total showed the fragility of the Democratic coalition, especially among young progressives and Arab Americans, as Biden begins a difficult path to reelection.

Biden's next test will be Tuesday in Minnesota. The state has far fewer Arab American voters than Michigan, but Minneapolis has a powerful progressive base. Leaders of the protest effort hope to get 10,000 “uncommitted” votes, a fraction of the 101,436 who cast those votes last Tuesday. And Biden's seven percentage point victory in the state in 2020 was more comfortable than his three-point victory in Michigan.

But Biden, who is trailing in the polls, needs to unite his party, and pro-Palestinian voices understand that they have leverage to try to influence U.S. policy on the war. His headaches will continue in Washington state on March 12, where progressives are mounting the next “uncommitted” campaign.

The nation's largest state will hold its biggest down-ballot primary on Tuesday, thanks to its unusual primary system, in which the top two finishers face off on Election Day, regardless of party.

The main race is for the Senate seat held until last year by Dianne Feinstein, who died at age 90 in September. The race attracted three Democratic heavyweights, all from California's House delegation: Adam Schiff, Katie Porter and Barbara Lee.

For much of the campaign, it looked like the top two finishers would be Democrats, Schiff and Porter. Then came the rise of a Republican celebrity, former Los Angeles Dodgers great Steve Garvey. He didn't campaign much, but Schiff, thinking that in a Democratic state like California, a Republican would be easier to beat in November, spent $10 million on ads apparently attacking Garvey as “too conservative for California.” but he intentionally elevated his candidacy.

On Tuesday, Schiff will see if his strategy will work or if Porter can take second place.

That primary system is also coming into play in a House seat in the Central Valley that Democrats badly want to wrest from Republican incumbent David Valadao. The newly drawn district would have favored Biden by 13 percentage points in 2020, but before they have a chance to try to win it, Democrats have to compete against each other.

The party's chosen candidate, a former assemblyman named Rudy Salas, faces a spirited Democratic opponent in Melissa Hurtado, whose state Senate seat reflects the U.S. House district. Both want to be the Central Valley's first Mexican-American representative, but if Democratic turnout is low and divided, Valadao could end up facing his Republican rival, Chris Mathys, in November. Democrats will have wasted one of their few opportunities to contest a Republican-held seat that favors Biden.

House primaries in North Carolina and Alabama will show how redrawing district lines will help and hurt both parties as they fight for control of a House that Republicans control by three seats.

In North Carolina, the Republican supermajority in the state legislature gerrymandered the map so thoroughly that a state with a Democratic governor and a near 50-50 partisan split will likely see its seven-to-seven House delegation swing toward 10. Republicans, of which 14 seats in total.

Three incumbent Democrats, Jeff Jackson, Wiley Nickel and Kathy Manning, decided not to even run for re-election.

In Alabama, a Supreme Court ruling that the state's Republican-drawn maps unconstitutionally deprived black voters of representation forced new lines that will pit two sitting House Republicans, Jerry Carl and Barry Moore, against one another. Yeah. Meanwhile, at least 11 candidates will fight for the newly drawn district, which is nearly 49 percent Black and which Biden would have won in 2020 by more than 12 points.

When Ken Paxton, the Republican attorney general of Texas, was impeached by a House of Representatives firmly controlled by his own party, it seemed like the ultimate nonpartisan rebuke.

The Texas House finally approved 20 articles of impeachment, by a lopsided 121-23 vote, related to allegations by a former high-ranking congressman that he had abused his office to benefit himself and a real estate investor. and Austin campaign donor who was said to have helped Mr. Paxton with renovations to his home, as well as helping Mr. Paxton carry out an extramarital affair. (Mr. Paxton declared the allegations false.)

Then last September, after a nine-day trial, the Texas Senate acquitted him. On Tuesday, Paxton seeks revenge against the Republicans who accused him.

Republicans aligned with Paxton or the state's conservative governor, Greg Abbott, are challenging other Republicans in more than two dozen races. For good measure, Paxton is trying to remake the state's highest criminal court by ousting three Republican judges who sit on the Court of Criminal Appeals.

If the rivals succeed, the country's largest and richest conservative state is likely to shift even further to the right.

North Carolina has a peculiar habit of electing Republican presidential candidates, Republican legislatures, and Democratic governors.

In 2024, with incumbent Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper term-limited and unable to seek re-election, Republicans hope to break that streak, although primary voters are likely to nominate a candidate who could prolong it. Mark Robinson, the state's conservative lieutenant governor with a history of offensive and polarizing comments, including disparaging members of the LGBTQ community, appears poised to win the nomination for the top job, opening a race with Democrats' likely pick: a moderate- The educated and popular state attorney general, Josh Stein.

The race will be followed closely. North Carolina narrowly won against Trump in 2020, while Cooper won re-election. Robinson could get a boost from the presidential campaign, or Biden could get a boost from the governor's race.

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