A storm system in the Gulf of Mexico, which is not expected to develop until Friday at the earliest, is forecast to move along or near the East Coast, spreading precipitation and gusty winds this weekend and next week.
It was not immediately clear exactly how much rain will fall and where. But one thing is certain: Like last weekend, this will be a reasonably warm system overall, dumping mostly rain as far as New England and eastern Canada, though it will be cold enough in some places along the belt. west of the storm for the rest of the year. Precipitation will fall as snow.
Here's what we know and don't know about the storm system.
The prognosis is uncertain.
Most computer weather models that meteorologists rely on to predict the weather agree that the storm will take shape in the Gulf of Mexico and cross the eastern United States into Canada, but not all models show exactly the same track. of the storm.
The location of the center of the storm system and the timing of its progression will determine which areas will receive the most rain, wind and potentially severe weather, the National Weather Service office in the Tampa Bay, Fla., area wrote in its report. Thursday morning. forecast.
New York meteorologists know the storm is coming, but the farther away it is from its onset, the harder it is to predict the precise path it will take. Different climate models for the storm show a wide range of possibilities, from skirting the East Coast to running up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains. The latest trend in computer forecast models shows the storm moving inland, spreading rain further west into the eastern United States on Sunday.
Even with this trend, the probability of excessive precipitation is greater along the coast. Even a low risk for extreme rainfall could lead to flooding in Florida on Saturday and in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday.
Here's what we know about the timing of the storm.
Friday afternoon and evening: A winter storm system develops over the Gulf of Mexico.
Saturday to Sunday: Rain begins to spread across Florida. From Saturday night into Sunday, the storm moves inland and begins its track toward the northeast. On Sunday, the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will likely be drenched in rain.
From Sunday afternoon to Monday: The storm brings heavy rain to the Northeast. On Monday afternoon, the storm will move into Canada.
Tuesday: Colder air will begin to envelop the storm system as it moves into eastern Canada, increasing the chances of snow, particularly in Appalachia, the Great Lakes region and Ontario. Persistent coastal rain could continue throughout the day.
Winter is just beginning.
This heat and rain do not suit snow lovers at all. It's early in the season though.
Meteorological winter, based on the temperature cycle, has only been with us for two weeks, and astronomical winter, based on the Earth's position relative to the sun, doesn't begin for another week.
This is also an El Niño winter. In 2015, during another El Niño, it was incredibly warm throughout December. On Christmas Eve of that year, in Albany, New York, and Burlington, Vermont, the temperature reached 72 degrees and 68 degrees, respectively, the highest ever recorded in each city during meteorological winter.
However, in late January 2016, a major winter storm dropped up to 42 inches of snow in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, disrupting the lives of more than 100 million people with widespread power outages, coastal flooding, and storm surges. snow. Central Park in New York City received 27.5 inches of snow, making it the biggest snowstorm there since authorities began recording them in 1869.
The lesson: Yes, this next storm will be a rain storm, but Northeast residents shouldn't rule out winter just yet.
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